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Walgreens’ deal for Duane Reade: The chain that would be king in the town that never sleeps

BY Jim Frederick

WHAT IT MEANS AND WHY IT’S IMPORTANT Is the merger agreement between Walgreens and Duane Reade another sign of rampant chain drug consolidation and attrition, or just a bold and long-expected move by two of the industry’s premier practitioners?

(THE NEWS: Walgreens to acquire Duane Reade. For the full story, click here)

The Walgreens-Duane Reade agreement has unleashed a flurry of speculation about other possible takeover candidates in drug store retailing — and about the eventual fate of the chain drug store industry itself. Much of the conjecture focuses on Rite Aid, with some industry observers and Web bloggers predicting that the nation’s No. 3 drug store operator will be next on the buyout list. The faulty underlying premise: There’s only room in the drug store market hierarchy for two national market leaders, not three.

One industry wag [no pun intended, Walgreens!] even predicts that within a quarter-century there will be only two chain drug store retailers left, and that the consolidation going on in the chain drug arena will reduce the industry to the state of the home center/home improvement channel, currently dominated by Lowe’s and Home Depot. But that scenario ignores the reality: unlike home centers, which must draw from a wide geographic area and ride the boom-bust cycles of construction and home remodeling to achieve critical mass, drug stores remain an everyday fixture of the American retail landscape, appealing to a broad swath of consumer needs in health, wellness, personal care, beauty care and convenient everyday necessities.

As Drug Store News editor Rob Eder wrote, “People have been anticipating the sale of Duane Reade for many years now; to pretend it’s a harbinger of the end of times for the drug channel is not only a tad over-dramatic, it’s terrifically myopic. The modern retail pharmacy business is much bigger than just the pure-play drug store channel; it’s food, drug, mass and independents.”

What’s more, Eder pointed out, one need only look at the supermarket industry to poke holes in the end-of-times thesis for drug chains. A slew of healthy food-store brands continues to thrive and compete across the country, spawning constant innovation and new in-store services as those chains develop “green” marketing practices, healthier eating choices and new ways to marry the health/wellness and professional services offered in their pharmacies with nutritional offerings in the aisles.

As for the undeniable consolidation that has occurred within the ranks of pure-play drug store operators, the merger and acquisition game will surely go on as bigger chains seek rapid entry into new markets. But that cycle is nothing new, and newly hatched drug chains continue to spring shoots as independent pharmacists grow their businesses and branch out. What’s more, Eder wrote, “Independents under the Leader, Good Neighbor, Health Mart and United Drugs banners are another reason why the retail pharmacy business will be a whole lot bigger and more diverse than the home center channel, for many, many years to come.”

Some Wall Street analysts have also questioned the wisdom of Walgreens’ deal for Duane Reade, noting that the company is paying on the upper end of market value for the company, and will eventually have to contend with new lease negotiations in New York’s high-cost commercial real estate market. But the sense here is that Walgreens’ grab for Duane Reade will, in the not-too-distant future, pay big dividends and position the company for the next upward tick in the economy and the next century of retail leadership, and that Walgreens will be hailed for its daring and prescience.

Yes, the chain paid a modest premium for the company, with an average per-store price of roughly $4.1 million if you don’t factor in the two distribution centers and the company’s central office on Ninth Street in Manhattan. But for their billion-dollar upfront investment, Walgreens is staking claim to some of the busiest, most productive retail sites in America, along with a commanding, saturation-level presence in the nation’s richest drug store market.

What’s more, the chain is importing management expertise in how to market to big-city consumers from one of the nation’s premier urban drug store practitioners. Nobody knows how to appeal to densely populated neighborhoods — not to mention the fickle tastes of time-strapped city dwellers and commuters who are always in a hurry — like Duane Reade, which markets on a neighborhood-by-neighborhood, store-specific basis and racks up the highest sales per sq. ft. in the drug store industry.

“The good thing is we feel their footprint is very complementary to ours,” Walgreens president and CEO Greg Wasson told Drug Store News Thursday. “Secondly, most urban markets like New York and San Francisco, you can have drug stores on opposite corners and they can be competitors and both do very well.”

With this deal, Walgreens will position itself not only on Main Street America, but also at its front door.

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Rite Aid may be viable acquisition, analyst says

BY Michael Johnsen

BASEL, Switzerland Walgreens’ acquisition of Duane Reade on Wednesday may make Rite Aid a more attractive acquisition target, speculated UBS analyst Neil Currie in a research note issued Thursday.

Currie has rated Rite Aid a “buy,” which is unchanged from before Walgreens’ announcement yesterday, and has a 12-month price target of $4 for Rite Aid’s stock. Rite Aid was trading at around $1.50 early Thursday morning after having closed at $1.39 at end-of-day Wednesday.

Walmart may be one of the more likely suitors, Currie suggested, especially given the mass merchant’s potential urban and pharmacy business aspirations.

Currie also identified both Walgreens and CVS as possible suitors despite the fact that either of these chains might have to make significant divestitures to satisfy the Federal Trade Commission.

“We believe potential suitors for stores within the Rite Aid portfolio could include CVS, especially in the Pacific Northwest and Mountain regions; Walgreens in certain urban markets; and Walmart, given our view that Walmart has significant potential to grow in urban markets, is looking more closely at the economics of a smaller food/drug footprint and appears to have wider healthcare ambitions,” Currie wrote.

Based on evaluations of Walgreens’ acquisition of Duane Reade and CVS’ acquisition of Long’s Drug in 2008, the possible price-tag for a Rite Aid acquisition could ring as high as $7.7 billion.

Currie calculated that Duane Reade is selling at an enterprise value/store of $4.2 million, which compares with the $5.6 million paid for Long’s Drug by CVS in 2008. EV/store is a measure of a company’s value, often is calculated as market capitalization plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents and divided by the store base.

Meanwhile, Rite Aid’s EV/store is calculated at approximately $1.6 million, Currie noted, given that Rite Aid’s salers/store is lower by 22%, versus Duane Reade and half of Long’s (in 2008). Multiply that $1.6 million/store evaluation by the approximate 4,800-strong Rite Aid store base and the likely cost for Rite Aid will calculate to about $7.7 billion.

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Publix earns top spot in consumer satisfaction survey

BY DSN STAFF

LAKELAND, Fla. Publix announced that it has been named the highest-ranking supermarket for customer satisfaction, according to the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI).

Publix scored 86 points, a 4.9% increase from the previous year.

“Our associates’ ability to offer outstanding customer service is a differentiating factor for Publix,” said president Todd Jones. “I’m proud of our associates for continuing to go above and beyond to satisfy customers’ needs.”

 

The ACSI is produced through a partnership between the University of Michigan Business School, the American Society for Quality and the international consulting firm, CFI Group.

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