Fraction of shoppers determine new CPG's success

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Just 1-in-67 shoppers, or 1.5%, determine the success of a new product, according to Catalina Marketing's "New Product Report."

Analyzing the two-year purchasing behavior of approximately 41 million U.S. consumers at approximately 20,000 stores, the precision consumer marketing firm found that while this fraction of shoppers accounted for 80% of volume during a 12-month window following the introduction of new consumer packaged goods, it also found that when examining 25 of the top product launches of 2010, almost two-thirds of sales (63%) came from existing brand buyers, but almost half of those sales cannibalized existing brand purchases.

Additionally, the "New Product Report" found, top category buyers, who accounted for 80% of sales in the category prior to a new product launch, were 3.8 times more likely to try than the average shopper. For product line extensions, top brand buyers, who accounted for 80% of brand sales prior to a new product launch, were 5.8 times more likely to try than the average shopper, Catalina said.

"This report shows just how few consumers make or break even the most successful new CPG product launches. Of the 25 new products studied in this report, just 1-out-of-67 shoppers made up the vast majority of sales," Catalina EVP brand development Todd Morris said. "With such small shopper concentrations driving the success of product launches, it's critical for a brand's advertising and promotions to reach the consumers who are most likely to try and repeat."

For the full report, click here.

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